5 Activist Reports Avis -54%, Sportradar -21%, FRMI -18%
Weekly Wrap Up: Sunday, April 26, 2026
This was one of the loudest weeks for activist short research in memory. Fugazi Research's takedown of Avis Budget on Wednesday landed in the middle of an unwinding squeeze that had briefly pushed the car rental operator's market cap from roughly $5 billion to over $26 billion; the stock collapsed more than 53% intraday. Sportradar also cratered after Callisto Research and Muddy Waters published coordinated reports the same morning, alleging the Swiss data vendor supplies the illegal gambling industry it claims to police. Fuzzy Panda hit AI data center hopeful Fermi America, and Land & Buildings published an open letter challenging Welltower's executive pay.
Quick Hits on Reports Published:
- Fuzzy Panda Research targeted Fermi America (FRMI) alleging the AI data center startup has no tenant, no financing, and a C-suite tied to a prior bankruptcy fraud case. Stock closed the week down 17.6%.
- Land & Buildings Investment Management targeted Welltower (WELL) alleging the REIT adopted the most aggressive executive pay plan in industry history without a shareholder vote. Stock closed the week down 0.3%.
- Callisto Research targeted Sportradar (SRAD) alleging the sports data vendor supplies illegal gambling operators, including platforms linked to OFAC-sanctioned individuals. Stock closed the week down 21.1%.
- Muddy Waters Research targeted Sportradar (SRAD) in a parallel report alleging Sportradar powers illegal sportsbooks linked to Cambodian human-trafficking operations. Stock closed the week down 21.1%.
- Fugazi Research targeted Avis Budget Group (CAR) alleging the car rental operator is a structurally distressed business propped up by a two-fund float squeeze now unwinding. Stock closed the week down 54.1%.
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Fermi America (FRMI) | Fuzzy Panda Research
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $6.55 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $5.03 | -23.2% |
| Close (Report Date) | $5.40 | -17.6% |
| Close (End of Week) | $5.40 | -17.6% |
Stock Price Impact
FRMI gapped sharply lower at Monday's open, trading as low as $5.03 (down 23.2% from Friday's $6.55 close) before settling at $5.40, down 17.6% on the day. The stock held that level through Friday, leaving the weekly decline at 17.6%. For a thinly traded post-IPO name that had roughly 94% of its float unlock in late March, the reaction reflects the market's concerns about Fuzzy Panda's core thesis: no capital, no tenant, no engineering plan.
About The Company
Fermi America is a pre-revenue AI data center and power generation REIT based in Amarillo, Texas, which IPO'd in October 2025. The business is centered on Project Matador, a 5,000-acre site Fermi plans to power with natural gas and later nuclear, then lease to a hyperscaler tenant. Co-founders include former Texas Governor Rick Perry, his son Griffin Perry, and Toby Neugebauer, whose prior fintech venture GloriFi collapsed amid fraud allegations. Neugebauer's departure was disclosed via 8-K on April 17, three days before the report.
Key Points from the Report
- Multiple Fermi executives were accused of fraudulent schemes at Neugebauer's prior company GloriFi. A bankruptcy court ruled that millions of dollars of transactions involving Neugebauer and current Chief Site Officer Charlie Hamilton constituted fraudulent transfers.
- Project Matador's engineering firm, Parkhill, appears to be an undisclosed related party: an owner is the first cousin of Fermi's Chief Site Officer. Industry experts told Fuzzy Panda that Parkhill's recent work (a fire station, a pickleball complex) does not support a multi-billion-dollar data center build.
- Tenant 1 (reportedly Amazon) walked away when Fermi failed to secure $5.2 to $5.5 billion in project financing by the December 9, 2025 exclusivity deadline. Construction has been halted since February 2026.
- 94% of the float unlocked on March 30 at a reported founder cost basis of $0.002 per share. Insiders have already sold more than $65 million of stock, with an estimated $2.4+ billion of additional insider shares eligible to be sold.
Read the Full Report Summary →
Welltower (WELL) | Land & Buildings
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $209.45 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $201.37 | -3.9% |
| Close (Report Date) | $206.39 | -1.5% |
| Close (End of Week) | $208.75 | -0.3% |
Stock Price Impact
Welltower's reaction was muted, which tracks with the nature of the piece: a published white paper focused on governance and valuation, not fraud. WELL traded to an intraday low of $201.37 (down 3.9% from the $209.45 prior close) before dip buyers recovered it to $206.39, down 1.5% on the day. By Friday, WELL had climbed back to $208.75, leaving the weekly decline at just 0.3%. Roughly 30% of the shareholder base is passive index capital unlikely to push back on management.
About The Company
Welltower is the largest US senior housing and healthcare REIT, with a market cap of roughly $147 billion. CEO Shankh Mitra joined in 2016 and assumed the CEO role in October 2020. On October 26, 2025, the board adopted a Ten-Year Executive Continuity and Alignment Program (ECAP), a new long-term compensation structure for Mitra, without submitting it to a binding shareholder vote. WELL trades at 33x forward FFO and a 144% premium to Green Street NAV, the highest in company history.
Key Points from the Report
- The ECAP is worth roughly $2.6 billion at $300/share and up to $3.04 billion at the $350 proxy cap, a scale Land & Buildings argues exceeds any REIT CEO package in history (David Simon's peak at Simon Property was $61.4M; Hamid Moghadam capped himself at $25M/year at Prologis).
- Roughly 2.48 million of the 8.7 million LTIP units, worth over $500 million at current prices, are time-based only and require no performance hurdle, just continued employment.
- The only clawback is for "cause" under Delaware law (fraud or criminal misconduct). Firing Mitra for poor performance would be "without cause" and trigger full immediate acceleration of the LTIP units, effectively removing the board's ability to replace leadership without enriching him.
- WELL trades at a 144% premium to Green Street NAV, up from 22% at year-end 2020. Land & Buildings estimates $1M in WELL buys roughly $410,000 of NAV, while the same dollar in Ventas (VTR) or American Healthcare REIT (AHR) buys about 50% more NAV at higher dividend yields.
Read the Full Report Summary →
Sportradar (SRAD) | Callisto Research
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $16.84 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $11.69 | -30.6% |
| Close (Report Date) | $13.04 | -22.6% |
| Close (End of Week) | $13.29 | -21.1% |
Stock Price Impact
SRAD opened well below Tuesday's $16.84 close, touching an intraday low of $11.69 (down 30.6%) before a partial recovery left it at $13.04, down 22.6% on the day. Selling was amplified by Muddy Waters publishing a parallel report hours after Callisto's. Modest recovery into Friday brought the stock to $13.29, trimming the weekly decline to 21.1%. A classic activist-short reaction: big day-one move, small late-day bounce, stable finish at a meaningfully lower level.
About The Company
Sportradar is a Swiss provider of sports data, odds, and trading services to the global online gambling industry. Founded in 2001 by CEO Carsten Koerl, the company positions itself as a leader in "sports integrity," holding partnerships with the NBA, NHL, and FIFA. It operates in regulated markets under licenses requiring strict anti-money-laundering compliance and prohibiting supplying unlicensed operators. North America accounts for roughly a quarter of revenue. Its direct listed peer is Genius Sports (GENI).
Key Points from the Report
- Callisto identified over 270 gambling platforms, more than a third of Sportradar's claimed 800 operators, that appear to use Sportradar's products while operating illegally. Former employees estimated exposure to unlicensed operators at 30 to 40% of revenue.
- Two former employees confirmed 1xBet, reportedly run by Russian fugitives and blacklisted in multiple countries, is among Sportradar's top 10 clients, a tier representing roughly 29% of revenue.
- Callisto identified clients linked to OFAC-sanctioned parties, including Bet City (controlled by sanctioned businessman Sergey Samsonenko until 2025) and Betboom (owned by a sanctioned Russian official's daughter). Russian operator Fonbet, alleged to use Sportradar data, runs shops in Russian-occupied Crimea.
- Sportradar has reported a material weakness in internal controls for five consecutive years, cycled through five CFOs in six years, and uses at least eight different small accounting firms across its subsidiaries. Its Swedish subsidiary was placed into liquidation in 2025 after ignoring four reporting injunctions.
Read the Full Report Summary →
Sportradar (SRAD) | Muddy Waters Research
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $16.84 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $11.69 | -30.6% |
| Close (Report Date) | $13.04 | -22.6% |
| Close (End of Week) | $13.29 | -21.1% |
Stock Price Impact
Muddy Waters published the same morning as Callisto's report, and the stock reaction reflects the combined force of both. The synchronized drop (30.6% intraday, 22.6% close, 21.1% by Friday) carries unusual evidentiary weight: two independent research teams reaching convergent conclusions using entirely different methodologies. Muddy Waters disclosed it intends to begin covering a substantial majority of its short upon publication, which tends to dampen further selling; Callisto has not, which may explain the drift into Friday.
About The Company
Sportradar is the world's largest sports data and integrity vendor, serving roughly 800 online gambling operators. CEO Carsten Koerl has called the firm the "FBI of gambling" on investor calls. A core and under-discussed element of the business, per Muddy Waters: flagship league rights deals (NBA, NHL, FIFA) are loss leaders, with actual profit coming from lower-tier data, virtual sports, and integrity services. Muddy Waters' six-month investigation combined an undercover sting at ICE 2026 in Barcelona, source-code analysis of 40+ gambling platforms, and interviews with 15 employees.
Key Points from the Report
- At ICE 2026, Muddy Waters investigators posed as operators of a startup sportsbook targeting Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and China, all markets with blanket online gambling bans. No Sportradar salesperson declined. One sales executive reportedly bragged that Sportradar "serves everyone" and offered to introduce investigators to China's largest alleged illegal operator, Yabo Group.
- Muddy Waters identified Sportradar's unique 32-character widgetloader Client ID in the source code of 8xBet, an illegal operator Sportradar had previously denied supplying. A former salesperson confirmed 8xBet was a customer.
- Four Sportradar customers per the report (Yabo Group, 8xBet, SBOBet, and OKVIP) operate Cambodian call centers that journalists and human rights groups have documented as using trafficked, enslaved workers.
- Muddy Waters estimates forced deplatforming of illegal customers would cut Sportradar's revenue by 20 to 40%. A top-down 40% scenario implies losses of roughly €246M (FY24) and €255M (FY25), erasing current profitability.
Read the Full Report Summary →
Avis Budget Group (CAR) | Fugazi Research
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $443.94 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $207.64 | -53.2% |
| Close (Report Date) | $229.14 | -48.4% |
| Close (End of Week) | $204.00 | -54.1% |
Stock Price Impact
CAR closed at $443.94 on Tuesday after peaking at an intraday record of $847.70 that same session, the high-water mark of a 480% April rally driven by a widely discussed short squeeze. Fugazi published Wednesday morning and the stock immediately collapsed, trading as low as $207.64 (down 53.2%) before finishing at $229.14, down 48.4%. Selling continued into Thursday and Friday, closing the week at $204.00, down 54.1%. Fugazi's thesis didn't break a new scandal so much as reframe the rally itself as the bubble, with its unwind as the first repricing.
About The Company
Avis Budget operates the Avis, Budget, and Zipcar brands across roughly 10,500 locations globally, with the Americas accounting for 76% of revenue. The business rotates about 684,000 vehicles annually, financed with $19.2 billion of asset-backed debt. Avis posted $2.71 billion of cumulative GAAP losses across 2024 and 2025, has negative shareholders' equity of $3.1 billion, and carries $25.3 billion of total debt. SRS Investment Management and Pentwater Capital together hold disclosed longs exceeding the non-affiliate float; SRS-affiliated executives hold the CEO and Executive Chairman roles plus a board seat. Q1 2026 earnings drop April 29.
Key Points from the Report
- Fugazi alleges Avis no longer covers its interest expense: $1.34B of annual interest against $748M of Adjusted EBITDA produces a 0.56x coverage ratio; GAAP coverage is outright negative. Adjusted EBITDA has been redefined to strip out $2.47B of 2024 fleet impairments, $518M of additional 2025 impairments, and $390M of vehicle disposal losses reclassified as "other fleet charges."
- SRS Investment Management's direct position (approximately 17.4M shares) alone exceeds the entire non-affiliate public float of 16.76M, per the company's 10-K. Pentwater Capital holds another 7.8M shares; combined disclosed long exposure exceeds the non-affiliate float by over 8.5M shares, before counting any other institutional holder.
- Three of Avis's top executive roles are SRS-affiliated: Brian Choi (SRS partner, CEO since Feb 2025); Jagdeep Pahwa (SRS President, Executive Chairman since Mar 2025); Karthik Sarma (SRS founder, on the board since 2020).
- On March 27, 2026, Avis established an at-the-market program for up to 5M additional shares (14% incremental issuance), potentially raising $2B+ at squeeze-inflated prices. Fugazi argues this turns the float constraint that drove the price up into the lever that could drive it down.
Read the Full Report Summary →
Activ8 Newswire
- Investors nurse billion-dollar losses after Avis Budget short squeeze unwinds. The Financial Times covers the unraveling of the April squeeze that almost quintupled Avis's market capitalization, featuring Fugazi Research's David Capablanca. SRS Investment Management and Pentwater Capital own more than 70% of the 35M shares outstanding; one industry executive told the FT the rally was driven by "one or two guys who controlled almost all of the float." Source: Financial Times
- POET Technologies CFO calls short sellers "maggots" as Marvell order sends stock parabolic. CFO Thomas Mika confirmed on StockTwits that POET will book revenues from Marvell via its Celestial AI acquisition, dismissing Wolfpack Research's short thesis (centered on an alleged "IRS tax nightmare" for US investors) with "I hate shorts" and calling short sellers "maggots." Source: Sherwood News
