Culper Takes On NVIDIA as Andrew Left's Federal Trial Opens
Weekly Wrap Up: Sunday, May 17, 2026
Quite a week. Andrew Left's federal trial opened in LA Monday, shaping up as the most consequential courtroom test of activist short selling in a generation. We've been tracking the filings for months, and the early read is that Left's attorneys are putting up a strong case. We also published a full breakdown of the case Sunday night. Six reports landed this week across biotech, satellites, photonics, robotics, and the biggest name in AI. CUE sank 34% on Fugazi's PIPE math, POET cratered 22% after Night Market's OFC fieldwork, and Wolfpack's York Space deep-dive ended down 31%. Culper's NVIDIA report didn't crack the stock yet. And our new dashboard pulls it all together in one view.
- Fugazi Research targeted Cue Biopharma (CUE) alleging engineered post-split dilution and one-time licensing revenue masking real demand. Closed the week down 34.26%.
- Wolfpack Research targeted York Space Systems (YSS) alleging the Pentagon has zeroed out the SDA program driving 96% of revenue, with former employees describing "Band-Aid" engineering. Closed the week down 30.96%.
- Shortfinder flagged Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP) in its systematic short rankings. Closed the week +11.55%.
- Culper Research targeted NVIDIA (NVDA) alleging over 20% of FY26 compute revenue still comes from China via Southeast Asian intermediaries financed by an Alibaba shell. Closed the week up 2.06%.
- White Diamond Research targeted Microbot Medical (MBOT) alleging the LIBERTY robotic system adds $3K-$4K in unreimbursed costs per procedure with no clinical edge. Closed the week down 14.75%.
- Night Market Research targeted POET Technologies (POET) alleging misrepresented partnerships with Marvell, Foxconn, Luxshare, and LITEON, plus a circular warrant-funded Lumilens order. Closed the week down 22.36%.
New from Activ8 This Week
Our deep-dive on the federal criminal case against Citron's Andrew Left, which opened in LA on May 11. The piece walks the indictment, the trades prosecutors highlight, the First Amendment defense, and what a verdict could mean for activist research.
Quick reminder: the Activ8 Insights Dashboard is live. All reports, stock reactions, and researchers in one searchable view.
New Activist Reports
Fugazi Research Short Report on Cue Biopharma, Inc.
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $35.00 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $29.92 | -14.51% |
| Close (Report Date) | $31.32 | -10.51% |
| Close (End of Week) | $23.01 | -34.26% |
Stock Price Impact
CUE's reaction was sharp and sustained. The stock hit $29.92 intraday and closed report day at $31.32, down 10.51%. Selling kept going through Friday, ending at $23.01, down 34.26%. That follow-through is unusual; most short reports fade by week's end. Fugazi's allegations clearly resonated.
About The Company
CUE is a U.S. clinical-stage biopharma. Per the report, it has never sold a commercial product, received FDA approval, or generated product revenue; lead program CUE-101 has been stuck in Phase 1b for years. Shao-Lee Lin was appointed CEO on April 30, 2026, alongside a $30M PIPE and an in-licensed asset from Ascendant Health Sciences.
Key Points from the Report
- An April 23 reverse split compressed ~97.7M shares to 3.26M; eight days later, a PIPE with pre-funded and common warrants covered 4,090,908 shares, more than the entire post-split common base.
- FY2025 revenue growth was driven by a one-time ImmunoScape licensing event. CFRA projects 2026 revenue around $1M and Q1 2026 at $2.50M, an 88.6% collapse from the Q4 2025 peak of $21.94M.
- Incoming CEO Shao-Lee Lin's last tenure at ACELYRIN ended after a primary endpoint failure sent that stock down 61.61% in two sessions. Her Day One CUE grant covers ~30.2% of the post-split common base.
Read the Full Report Summary →
Wolfpack Research Short Report on York Space Systems, Inc.
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $34.79 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $30.25 | -13.05% |
| Close (Report Date) | $35.88 | +3.13% |
| Close (End of Week) | $24.02 | -30.96% |
Stock Price Impact
YSS gave one of the stranger reactions of the week. The stock dipped to $30.25 intraday, then rallied to close up 3.13% at $35.88, a rare green close on a short-report day. By Friday, YSS had collapsed to $24.02, down 30.96%, as fact-checks accumulated.
About The Company
York is a Denver-based satellite manufacturer that IPO'd in January 2026. More than 90% of revenue has historically come from the DoD's Space Development Agency, building Transport Layer satellites for the Proliferated Warfighter program. In FY2025, 96% of revenue came from the SDA. York recently agreed to acquire satcom maker All.Space for $355M.
Key Points from the Report
- Per the FY2027 RDT&E J-Book, the Pentagon has zeroed out Tranche 3 Transport Layer funding, York's primary growth driver, and is folding requirements into a new Space Data Network where SpaceX's Starshield is the incumbent.
- Multiple former employees told Wolfpack the "modular ready-to-deploy" pitch doesn't match reality. One said: "There are no platforms that are just hanging out ready to go, and everything is frantic."
- York's own 10-K discloses a material weakness in over-time revenue recognition, while only the CFO and one finance employee can view or approve costs across a 710-employee organization.
Read the Full Report Summary →
Shortfinder Short Report on Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp.
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $14.11 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $12.52 | -11.27% |
| Close (Report Date) | $13.28 | -5.88% |
| Close (End of Week) | $15.74 | +11.55% |
About the Publisher
Shortfinder isn't a traditional activist short seller. It's a system.
Rather than building narrative cases against individual companies, Shortfinder ingests SEC filings daily and runs machine learning models that score small and micro cap equities on the likelihood and magnitude of price declines across 1, 5, and 20 day horizons. The output is a ranked, systematically updated universe of short candidates built from the filing record itself.
Coverage Areas
Dilution Risk · Financial Health · Insider Behavior · Ownership Networks · Enforcement History
Culper Research Short Report on NVIDIA Corp
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $220.78 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $221.57 | +0.36% |
| Close (Report Date) | $225.83 | +2.29% |
| Close (End of Week) | $225.32 | +2.06% |
Stock Price Impact
NVIDIA didn't budge. The intraday low only touched $221.57, slightly above the prior close, and NVDA finished the week at $225.32, up 2.06%. That's what you'd expect from the world's largest company by market cap. Whether the thesis holds depends on what the DoJ, Singapore authorities, and Senate investigators do next.
About The Company
NVIDIA is the world's largest company by market cap and the dominant AI GPU supplier. Its Data Center segment, selling H100, H200, and Blackwell GPUs, drives the vast majority of revenue. The company posted $19.7B in China revenue in FY 2026 and has claimed zero China compute share since April 2025 U.S. export controls took effect.
Key Points from the Report
- Despite Jensen Huang's "100% out of China" claim, Culper alleges over 20% of FY 2026 compute revenue still came from Chinese demand via Southeast Asian intermediaries. IDC data shows NVIDIA shipped ~2.2M cards in China in 2025 with 55% market share, far above what disclosed H20 revenues of ~$7.2B would imply.
- Per Singapore filings, Alibaba-owned Apex Enterprise Solutions held $4.2B in loans payable to Alibaba as of March 31, 2025. Speedmatrix pledged its entire business as collateral to Apex two months before operations began, effectively letting Alibaba finance billions in NVIDIA-server purchases.
- A current Megaspeed employee told Culper that Jensen Huang visits Megaspeed-linked data centers "every few months" and "every single time" with Alibaba representatives, and that Alice Huang "is actually still our boss."
Read the Full Report Summary →
White Diamond Research Short Report on Microbot Medical Inc.
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $2.17 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $1.73 | -20.28% |
| Close (Report Date) | $1.85 | -14.75% |
| Close (End of Week) | $1.85 | -14.75% |
Stock Price Impact
MBOT had nowhere to hide. The stock fell to $1.73 intraday and closed at $1.85, down 14.75%, holding through Friday. For a single-product company near cash value with a $30M annual burn, that puts White Diamond's $1 price target within reach.
About The Company
Microbot is a single-product device company commercializing the LIBERTY Endovascular Robotic System, an FDA 510(k)-cleared single-use robot for peripheral vascular procedures. It received clearance in September 2025 and went into full market release on April 13, 2026. MBOT had ~$80M in cash at year-end, a ~$2.5M monthly burn, and filed a $39M ATM on April 10, 2026.
Key Points from the Report
- Per surgeon interviews, the LIBERTY adds $3,000 to $4,000 in unreimbursed costs per procedure, adds ~15 minutes of case time, and has no reimbursement code. White Diamond argues NTAP eligibility is unrealistic because the device fails the substantial clinical improvement requirement.
- Dr. Charles Briggs of Tampa General confirmed the LIBERTY is only compatible with .014" guidewires while the market standard is .018". Physicians still wear lead vests for most of each procedure, negating the marketed radiation benefit.
- CEO Harel Gadot's prior venture, XACT Robotics, was also an FDA-cleared vascular surgery robot marketed on radiation reduction. XACT shut down in September 2023, laying off 65 employees ~4 years after clearance after failing to generate significant revenue.
Read the Full Report Summary →
Night Market Research Short Report on POET Technologies Inc.
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $20.57 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $15.95 | -22.46% |
| Close (Report Date) | $15.97 | -22.36% |
| Close (End of Week) | $15.97 | -22.36% |
Stock Price Impact
POET was the week's hardest-hit name. The stock fell to $15.95 intraday and closed at $15.97, both ~22% drops, holding through Friday. For a company trading at 3,700x 2025 revenue with $1.2M in cumulative chip sales since 2018, Night Market's OFC fieldwork gave the market specific names and quotes to react to.
About The Company
POET develops the Optical Interposer, a passive-alignment photonic integration platform for high-speed datacenter transceivers. Originally Opel Solar's semiconductor division, it rebranded in 2013 and launched the Optical Interposer in 2018. Cumulative chip revenue since 2018 totals $1.2M. POET now manufactures through Malaysian firms Globetronics and NationGate, and recently completed a $400M raise.
Key Points from the Report
- At OFC 2026, Night Market spoke with executives from seven POET partners. Foxconn said it stopped using POET two years ago. Two Luxshare execs had never heard of POET. LITEON's President said "LITEON doesn't cooperate with this company."
- Night Market alleges the $50M Lumilens order is a warrant-funded circular promotion. Lumilens received 2.3M warrants worth over $30M for signing. Its CEO sits on Accton's board, Accton invested $9M in Lumilens' Series B, and their San Jose offices are a few hundred feet apart.
- A former senior Rockley Photonics engineer (POET's closest competitor per its own CFO) told Night Market POET's Optical Interposer is "a solution looking for a problem." Celestial AI acquired Rockley's patent portfolio for $20M in October 2024 rather than invest further in POET.
Read the Full Report Summary →
Activ8 Newswire
Andrew Left to face jury over alleged manipulation — The federal criminal trial of Citron's Andrew Left opened in LA Monday; prosecutors are expected to call retail investors, a JPMorgan analyst, and the CFO of a company Left once labeled the "Enron of Education." Source: Bloomberg
The Texas-Size fight over Rick Perry's nuclear power startup — Fermi America, the Perry-co-founded AI-and-nuclear venture previously targeted by Fuzzy Panda Research, has watched its market value collapse from $19B at IPO to under $5B as co-founder Toby Neugebauer's firing erupts into a public boardroom war. Source: The Wall Street Journal
China's hot, unprofitable AI stocks are hard to short until July — Chinese AI startups MiniMax and Zhipu trade at 600x and 410x price-to-sales, but post-IPO lockups make shorting nearly impossible: annualized borrow costs are 39% and 27% versus 0.25% for regular liquid stocks. Source: Bloomberg
