OPTX Down 22%, APP Down 15%: 4 Short Reports Landed This Week
Weekly Wrap Up: Sunday, February 15, 2026
It was one of those weeks where the short selling world felt like the main character. Goldman Sachs reported that hedge fund single-stock short selling hit record levels in data going back to 2016, with short sales outpacing long buys by a two-to-one ratio. Hedge funds are net-short software for the first time in a long time, and the numbers are staggering: an estimated $24 billion in profits from software shorts alone in 2026 so far. That backdrop made this week's four new activist reports feel especially well-timed. Fugazi Research delivered another sharp strike on a micro-cap de-SPAC, sending Syntec Optics down over 22% intraday. Hunterbrook Media targeted BigBear.ai with a devastating deep-dive into its $250M Ask Sage acquisition. Spruce Point Capital Management took a forensic scalpel to Super Group's ownership structure. And The Captain's Log published a detailed breakdown of gift card subsidy schemes allegedly inflating AppLovin's revenue, just days before the company reported earnings and saw shares crater nearly 15% on the week. Over on the site, we published our first Behind the Bear interview featuring David Capablanca and dropped the January 2026 Monthly Short Selling Report, which showed an 80% success rate across 15 campaigns last month.
- Hunterbrook Media targeted BigBear.ai (BBAI) alleging the Pentagon built a free AI platform that renders BigBear's $250M Ask Sage acquisition obsolete. Stock closed the week down 7.9%.
- Spruce Point Capital Management targeted Super Group (SGHC) alleging an undisclosed 10.71% minority interest in its crown-jewel subsidiary could overstate EBITDA by $31M. Stock closed the week up 5.3%.
- Fugazi Research targeted Syntec Optics (OPTX) alleging a controlled de-SPAC structure built for insider extraction, with 80%+ shares held by one individual. Stock closed the week down 18.1%.
- The Captain's Log targeted AppLovin (APP) alleging third-party gift card schemes are artificially inflating the company's revenue growth. Stock closed the week down 15.1%.
New from Activ8 This Week
Our inaugural Behind the Bear profile sits down with the architect-turned-short-seller behind Fugazi Research. Capablanca's track record speaks for itself: every published short thesis since launching in June 2025 has resulted in significant stock declines. A deeply reported look at the process, discipline, and pattern recognition behind one of the standout activist short sellers of the past year.
January delivered an 80% success rate across 15 activist short campaigns, with 12 profitable trades. Fugazi Research topped the leaderboard for a third consecutive month. The report breaks down every campaign, tracks stock performance, and highlights the month's biggest wins and misses, including one biotech squeeze that reshaped the averages.
This Week's Reports
Hunterbrook Media Short Report on BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $4.43 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $3.97 | -10.4% |
| Close (Report Date) | $4.10 | -7.4% |
| Close (End of Week) | $4.08 | -7.9% |
Stock Price Impact
BigBear.ai shares fell sharply on the day Hunterbrook Media published its report, dropping as low as $3.97 intraday for a 10.4% decline from the prior close. The stock recovered slightly to close at $4.10, down 7.4%, as some buyers stepped in at the lows. By Friday's close, shares had settled at $4.08, ending the week down 7.9%. The selling pressure was steady but not panicked, likely reflecting the fact that BBAI was already trading at depressed levels before the report landed. For a sub-$5 stock with already-skeptical institutional holders, the decline was meaningful and sustained through the week.
About The Company
BigBear.ai Holdings is a government-focused analytics and artificial intelligence company headquartered in Columbia, Maryland. It provides AI-powered decision intelligence solutions primarily to the U.S. Department of Defense, intelligence community, and other federal agencies. The company went public in 2021 through a SPAC merger. In November 2025, BigBear made its largest-ever acquisition, purchasing Ask Sage, a military AI chatbot platform, for $250 million. CEO Mandy Long has positioned the company as a leader in national security AI, though Q3 2025 revenue fell 20% year-over-year to $33.1 million with negative adjusted EBITDA.
Key Points from the Report
- The report alleges catastrophic acquisition timing: BigBear announced the $250M Ask Sage purchase on November 10, and just 29 days later the Pentagon launched GenAI.mil, a free, government-built AI platform now mandated across the Department of Defense and already adopted by five of six military branches.
- According to Hunterbrook, BigBear paid 10x annual recurring revenue for Ask Sage's roughly $25M in ARR, while the platform's total government contracts amounted to only approximately $60M over five years.
- The report highlights that GenAI.mil reached 1.1 million unique users within two months, powered by Google, OpenAI, and xAI, while Ask Sage had roughly 100,000 users, representing an 11x gap in adoption scale.
- Hunterbrook alleges BigBear's newly named CTO, Ask Sage founder Nicolas Chaillan, publicly called the Pentagon's move "beyond stupid, wasteful and moronic" on LinkedIn, reportedly removed BigBear from his LinkedIn title, and declined to comment to reporters.
Read the Full Report Summary →
Spruce Point Capital Management Short Report on Super Group Limited
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $8.52 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $8.51 | -0.1% |
| Close (Report Date) | $8.66 | +1.6% |
| Close (End of Week) | $8.97 | +5.3% |
Stock Price Impact
Super Group barely flinched on publication day, touching a low of $8.51, just a penny below the prior close, before finishing the session higher at $8.66. By Friday, shares had climbed to $8.97, up 5.3% on the week. The muted reaction is notable given the severity of Spruce Point's allegations. SGHC's relatively low trading volume and limited U.S. analyst coverage may have blunted the report's immediate market impact. It's not uncommon for forensic-accounting-heavy reports on smaller international names to take weeks or months to fully translate into price action, particularly when the allegations center on ownership structure and regulatory risk rather than outright fraud.
About The Company
Super Group Limited is a global online sports betting and gaming company listed on NASDAQ. It operates primarily through two brands: Betway, a major international sportsbook, and Spin, an online casino platform. The company is headquartered in Guernsey with significant operations in South Africa, the UK, and other regulated markets. Super Group came public via a SPAC merger in 2022. Its crown-jewel subsidiary, Raging River Trading, is a South African entity that generates an estimated 52% of group EBITDA. The company navigates complex multi-jurisdiction regulatory requirements across dozens of markets where online gambling is permitted.
Key Points from the Report
- Spruce Point alleges SGHC is improperly consolidating 100% of Raging River Trading's economics despite a B-BBEE verification certificate and Western Cape Gambling Board notice confirming a 10.71% stake held by Betway Cares Foundation, potentially overstating 2025 estimated EBITDA by approximately $30.7 million.
- The report highlights that South Africa's Financial Surveillance Department has initiated an investigation into historical cross-border fund transfers from Raging River to offshore group entities.
- According to Spruce Point, SGHC extended over €102 million in loans to Apricot, an entity connected to its largest shareholder, before announcing an acquisition for sportsbook technology that its biggest market does not even use.
- The report notes SGHC switched auditors from BDO to Deloitte in 2025 after a history of multiple material weaknesses in internal controls over financial reporting, and operates subsidiaries across jurisdictions including Guernsey, Malta, Cyprus, Paraguay, and Cameroon.
Read the Full Report Summary →
Fugazi Research Short Report on Syntec Optics Holdings Inc.
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $7.33 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $5.68 | -22.5% |
| Close (Report Date) | $6.21 | -15.3% |
| Close (End of Week) | $6.00 | -18.1% |
Stock Price Impact
Syntec Optics was hit hard on publication day, cratering as much as 22.5% to an intraday low of $5.68 before partially recovering to close at $6.21, down 15.3%. The sharp intraday volatility is characteristic of low-float, insider-controlled names where a well-sourced short thesis can trigger rapid repricing. By Friday's close, shares had drifted further to $6.00, ending the week down 18.1%. The continued weakness into the end of the week suggests the market is still digesting the report's governance allegations and there may be further downside ahead as more investors become aware of the thesis.
About The Company
Syntec Optics Holdings is a Rochester, New York-based manufacturer of precision optical components, advanced optics, and photonics products. The company serves defense, medical, and industrial markets with capabilities in injection molding, diamond turning, and thin-film coating for optical lenses and assemblies. Syntec went public in 2023 through a de-SPAC merger with OmniLit Acquisition Corp. Al Kapoor, who controlled both the private company and the SPAC sponsor, emerged from the transaction holding over 80% of outstanding shares. The company reported FY2024 revenue of $28.4 million with a net loss of $2.6 million and just $600,000 in cash.
Key Points from the Report
- Fugazi Research alleges Al Kapoor simultaneously controlled both Syntec Optics and the SPAC sponsor OmniLit, engineering a merger that left him with 80%+ of outstanding shares and approximately 21.6 million of the roughly 26 million contingent earnout shares, which are tied to stock price thresholds rather than revenue or operational performance.
- The report highlights a collapsing balance sheet: cash dropped 72% to $600,000, net income swung from positive $1.5 million to negative $2.6 million, and the company's credit line was cut from $10 million to $8 million while leverage reached 5.25x.
- According to Fugazi, former CEO and board member Joseph Mohr refused to sign the 2024 10-K, alleging "fraudulent financial reporting" and governance failures in communications with corporate counsel. He was subsequently forced out of the company.
- The report documents serial Nasdaq non-compliance, with multiple deficiency notices for late filings and minimum market-value failures since inception.
Read the Full Report Summary →
The Captain's Log Short Report on AppLovin Corporation
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $460.38 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $461.70 | +0.3% |
| Close (Report Date) | $472.92 | +2.7% |
| Close (End of Week) | $390.67 | -15.1% |
Stock Price Impact
AppLovin's stock actually rose on the day The Captain's Log published its report, closing up 2.7% at $472.92. The initial resilience likely reflected the market's focus on the company's upcoming earnings release rather than the short thesis. That changed dramatically after AppLovin reported Q4 results on February 11. Despite beating estimates (revenue up 66% to $1.66 billion, EPS of $3.24 vs. $2.96 expected), shares plunged roughly 18% on February 12 as broader AI disruption fears overwhelmed the results. By Friday, APP had closed at $390.67, down 15.1% for the week. The Captain's Log report, combined with the broader software selloff and lingering scrutiny from multiple short sellers over the past year, added weight to an already fragile narrative.
About The Company
AppLovin Corporation is a Palo Alto-based mobile advertising technology company that operates one of the largest ad mediation platforms in the mobile gaming ecosystem. Its core product, AppDiscovery, uses AI-powered auction systems to match advertisers with publisher supply, while its MAX platform optimizes ad inventory value through real-time bidding. AppLovin also operates mobile gaming studios and has recently expanded into e-commerce advertising. The company has been one of the most talked-about names in tech, with its stock rising more than 5x during 2025 before losing roughly 50% from its December highs near $746. It has faced multiple short-seller reports from firms including Fuzzy Panda, Muddy Waters, and Culper Research.
Key Points from the Report
- The Captain's Log alleges that key AppLovin games named in SEC filings, including Cash Tornado Slots and Project Makeover, are actively subsidized through "Get-Paid-To" platforms like Swagbucks and InboxDollars, where users spend $49.99 on in-app purchases and receive $75.00 back in gift cards or PayPal, effectively a 50% premium for padding APP's revenue metrics.
- The report claims these subsidized games represented approximately 9% to 13% of company revenue in 2024 according to SEC filings, with partner game Match Jong paying users up to $50 to simply watch ads in what participants described as "5% gameplay, 95% watching ads."
- According to the report, the e-commerce advertising narrative that fueled AppLovin's stock run is fundamentally undermined by the fact that users attracted through these schemes are incentivized to earn money, not spend it, making them poor targets for e-commerce advertisers.
- The report highlights hundreds of recent BBB complaints against Prodege (operator of Swagbucks) from consumers who were not paid out after completing in-app purchases, alongside significant insider selling by large shareholder Hao Tang per a January 30, 2025 Schedule 13G filing.
Read the Full Report Summary →
Activ8 Newswire
Hedge funds pile into short positions on US stocks at record pace — Notional short selling across single stocks hit the highest level on record in Goldman Sachs data going back to 2016, with short sales outpacing long buys by a two-to-one ratio amid growing fears that AI will disrupt existing business models. Source: Bloomberg
Goldman confirms hedge funds added record short positions during market rout — Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage team reported that the Jan. 30 to Feb. 5 period saw the largest single-stock shorting activity in their dataset, with hedge funds net-selling U.S. equities for a fourth consecutive week at the heaviest rate since the 2025 trade war. Source: Bloomberg
AppLovin plunges 18% despite blowout earnings as AI fears dominate — AppLovin reported Q4 revenue up 66% to $1.66 billion and beat on both top and bottom lines, but shares cratered on broader AI disruption concerns and analyst price target cuts, with the stock now down roughly 50% from its December highs. Source: Barron's
Australia puts Roblox "on notice" over child grooming concerns — Australia's Communications Minister demanded an urgent meeting with Roblox executives after reports of children being sexually groomed on the platform, echoing Hindenburg Research's 2024 report that described the platform as an unsafe environment for minors. Source: The Straits Times
