October's third week delivered contrasting narratives in activist short selling, as two prominent reports targeting European companies generated dramatically different market responses. Ningi Research's forensic accounting work on Polish retailer CCC S.A. triggered an immediate 14.6% intraday collapse before a remarkable recovery erased nearly all losses by week's end, while The Bear Cave's structural thesis on Danish sports betting affiliate Better Collective barely registered with investors. The week underscored a critical dynamic in 2025's market environment: initial panic can create opportunity for bears, but sustained downside requires more than quality research when bargain hunters and institutional buyers rush in to defend positions at the first sign of weakness.

Ningi Research Short Report on CCC S.A. (WSE:CCC)

Report Impact on Stock Price

Ningi Research's October 16th report alleging a PLN 330 million channel stuffing scheme at Polish footwear retailer CCC S.A. generated immediate panic on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, with shares cratering 14.6% intraday to PLN 131.55 as the forensic accounting allegations hit the tape. The dramatic selloff demonstrated the market's initial alarm at claims of insider-controlled fraud and artificial EBITDA inflation. However, bargain hunters and institutional support emerged rapidly, with the stock recovering to close at PLN 146—cutting losses to just 5.3% from the prior close of PLN 154.10—as management issued a swift rebuttal and investors weighed the company's established retail presence. The recovery accelerated through week's end, with CCC closing Friday at PLN 154, essentially flat (-0.06%) from pre-report levels, representing a complete reversal that handed shorts significant mark-to-market losses.

Who is CCC S.A.?

CCC S.A. is a Polish footwear and apparel retailer listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, operating multi-brand retail stores across Central and Eastern Europe. The company generates PLN 10.3 billion in annual revenue through its CCC-branded footwear stores, HalfPrice discount outlets, and Modivo e-commerce platform, while also holding exclusive licensing rights to distribute Reebok and 19 other brands through Authentic Brands Group.

Key Points from the Report

• Massive Channel Stuffing Scheme: CCC dumped PLN 330 million in unwanted inventory to MKRI, an insolvent franchisee secretly controlled by CCC's Chairman Wieslaw Oles through shell companies and law firm proxies, artificially inflating EBITDA by 20.4% (PLN 267.4 million) since November 2024.

• Explosive Trade Receivables Growth: Trade receivables surged 112% year-over-year to PLN 535 million—a massive red flag for a consumer retailer with primarily cash sales—with PLN 130 million already past due and only 77% provisioned despite meeting CCC's own default criteria.

• Failed Store Expansion and Collapsing Sales: CCC achieved only 43% of its ambitious 350,000 square meter annual expansion target with 3.5 months remaining (mathematically impossible), while same-store sales collapsed -4.7% across the group, prompting management to stop disclosing like-for-like sales data in Q2 2025 after five years of consistent reporting.

• Reebok Inventory Crisis: CCC increased Reebok inventory 73% to PLN 618 million despite Google Trends showing persistent downward trajectory for the brand, financing this bet with debt while absorbing all inventory risk under a licensing deal that provides risk-free royalties to Authentic Brands Group.

• Regulatory Exposure: CCC exercised control over MKRI months before filing for antitrust approval, constituting "gun jumping" that could trigger a PLN 1+ billion fine (10% of revenue) from UOKiK, Poland's antitrust authority, which has precedent for massive penalties including PLN 29 billion to Gazprom and PLN 405 million to KIA.

  Read our full summary here

The Bear Cave Research Report on Better Collective (STO:BETCO)

Report Impact on Stock Price

The Bear Cave's October 16th report outlining four structural headwinds facing Danish sports betting affiliate Better Collective A/S barely registered with investors, as the stock dipped just 2.3% intraday to SEK 120.80 on the Stockholm Stock Exchange before recovering ground. Better Collective closed the day at SEK 122.30, down a modest 1.1% from the prior close of SEK 123.60, as the market largely dismissed the long-term structural concerns about AI disruption, media disintermediation, prediction markets, and regulatory pressure. By week's end, the stock closed at SEK 122.00, down only 1.3% from pre-report levels, signaling that investors either disagreed with the thesis or viewed these risks as already priced into the stock's valuation.

Who is Better Collective?

Better Collective A/S is a Danish digital sports media company listed on both the Stockholm and Copenhagen stock exchanges, operating a portfolio of high-traffic sports betting affiliate websites including Vegas Insider, Action Network, and Futbin that generate over 450 million monthly visits. The company's business model relies on earning affiliate commissions by directing users to online sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365, having grown its 7.36 billion SEK (5 billion DKK) valuation through dozens of acquisitions in the sports betting media space.

Key Points from the Report

• AI Disruption Threatens Core Traffic: AI-powered web summaries and chatbots will reduce website traffic to Better Collective's affiliate properties, directly diminishing both advertising and affiliate revenue streams that form the foundation of the company's business model.

• Media Disintermediation Undermining Publications: Consumer behavior is shifting toward following individual content creators over traditional publications, while allegations of "clickbait" content quality combine with falling barriers to content production to erode Better Collective's competitive positioning in sports betting media.

• Prediction Markets as Alternative Betting Platforms: Emerging prediction markets like Kalshi represent a structural threat to Better Collective's affiliate revenue model, as these platforms offer alternatives to traditional online sportsbooks but don't pay the lucrative affiliate commissions that Better Collective depends on for revenue.

• Regulatory Pressure Squeezing Margins: An increasingly onerous regulatory environment across jurisdictions is making the already-challenging affiliate marketing model even more difficult, adding compliance costs and restrictions that will compress margins and limit growth opportunities.

• Perfect Storm of Converging Threats: The Bear Cave argues these four headwinds are not isolated challenges but rather simultaneous structural threats converging to create a perfect storm that will leave Better Collective unable to maintain its current valuation or business performance over the near to medium term.

  Read our full summary here

September 2025 proved that activist short selling remains a powerful force, but success now depends on precision targeting, with devastating wins and surprising losses revealing which tactics still work and which have hit a wall in today's resilient market.

Other News

• Edwin Dorsey of The Bear Cave explains that short sellers are holding back on betting against AI companies despite bubble concerns, waiting for market momentum to break before releasing reports, noting that timing is crucial and shorts prefer to strike "when the jaguar is out of the trees" rather than at all-time highs.

• Short sellers face their most challenging environment in years as AI enthusiasm and bullish market sentiment drive rallies in heavily shorted stocks, forcing bears to wait for momentum to break before deploying capital.

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