Weekly Wrap Up: Sunday 11/16/2025
Burry Exits, Saylor Under Pressure + Activists Expose 'Prospectless' Companies
It was a big week in the short selling world. Michael Burry, the legendary investor from "The Big Short," deregistered Scion Asset Management from SEC reporting requirements, meaning we'll no longer see his quarterly 13F filings. Meanwhile, Michael Saylor faced growing pressure from short sellers as MicroStrategy's premium to net asset value compressed, prompting the chairman to publicly address critics. On the international front, we published our analysis on short selling in the Middle East, examining why regulatory frameworks exist but actual short-selling activity remains virtually nonexistent in MENA markets.
This Week's New Reports
- Two new reports released this week targeting speculative technology and aerospace companies with mixed market reactions despite serious allegations
- Spruce Point Management targeted IperionX Ltd ($IPX) with claims of zero revenue, unproven technology, and 70-95% downside potential—yet the stock declined only 8.8% for the week
- Pelican Way Research called New Horizon Aircraft ($HOVR) a "joke of an eVTOL company" operating from comically small facilities—the stock actually rallied 2% the day of the report before declining 3.5% for the week
- Both reports highlight extreme shareholder dilution, questionable management practices, and missing revenue despite years of operations
- The muted market reactions underscore ongoing challenges for short sellers in the current bullish environment, even when presenting compelling evidence of operational and financial red flags
New Activist Reports
IperionX Ltd IPX
NASDAQ | Spruce Point Management
November 12, 2025Despite Spruce Point Management presenting extensive evidence of concerns and forecasting 70-95% downside potential, IperionX's stock showed relative resilience. The stock dropped to an intraday low of $33.19 (down 11.4%) on the report date before recovering to close at $34.16, representing an 8.8% decline for both the day and the week. The muted response suggests either strong investor conviction in the company's titanium production technology story or a broader market environment where short reports are struggling to gain traction.
About IperionX Ltd:IperionX Ltd is a Charlotte, North Carolina-based company promoting a "revolutionary" titanium production technology called HAMR (Hydrogen Assisted Metallothermic Reduction). Trading on both Nasdaq and the Australian Securities Exchange with a market capitalization of $1.2 billion, the company claims its proprietary process can produce titanium metal and alloys from scrap and ore more efficiently than traditional methods. Formerly known as TAO Commodities and Hyperion Metals, IperionX also controls the Titan Project in Tennessee, a mineral sands deposit containing titanium and zircon. The company is led by CEO Anastasios (Taso) Arima, who previously held roles at Piedmont Lithium, Paringa Resources, and Coalspur Mines.
Key Points from the Report:- Zero revenue generated despite multiple announced partnerships and years of operations, with no inventory reported on the balance sheet
- Customer engagement collapsed 89% from approximately 200 NDAs in October 2024 to just 22 active engagements by September 2025
- Site visit to Charlotte, NC headquarters found no one present with packages piled outside; neighboring business confirmed they never see anyone there
- Halifax County, Virginia confirmed no Machinery & Tools or Tangible Property tax forms exist for IPX's main facility despite $30M in reported PP&E additions
- HAMR technology described in academic research as "not energy-efficient" with "high temperature" and "high energy consumption"; Boeing and Arconic tested for 10 years but never became customers
- Trades at 9.7x book value versus specialty metals industry median of 1.4x, and 24x estimated 2026 revenue versus industry median of 1.9x—all with zero actual revenue
- CEO and Executive Chairman share overlapping history at troubled ventures including Piedmont Lithium, Paringa Resources (failed to commercialize), and Coalspur Mines (never commercialized)
- HAMR technology inventor Dr. Zhigang Zak Fang sold his IPX shares shortly after receiving them as part of $14M Blacksand acquisition
- Would need to secure 20-30% of entire global titanium scrap market to reach 10,000 ton target, with scrap prices ranging from $3,000-$15,000 per ton
- Management bonus structure most heavily weighted toward capital raising and investor relations rather than securing customers or generating revenue
New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. HOVR
NASDAQ | Pelican Way Research
November 13, 2025In a surprising turn, New Horizon Aircraft's stock actually rallied on the day Pelican Way Research published its scathing report calling the company "a joke of an eVTOL company with zero prospects." After hitting an intraday low of $1.86 (down 6.5%), the stock recovered to close at $2.03, up 2% from the previous day's close. However, the gains proved short-lived as the stock declined to $1.92 by week's end, representing a 3.5% decline for the week. The initial positive reaction despite damning allegations highlights the challenging environment for short sellers in speculative growth sectors.
About New Horizon Aircraft Ltd.:New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. is a Canadian eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) aircraft development company that went public via SPAC merger in 2025. Trading on Nasdaq, the company is developing the Cavorite X7, a proposed 7-seat hybrid-electric aircraft it claims will revolutionize regional air transportation. Founded by CEO Brandon Robinson, the company has approximately $20 million in cash as of August 2025 and operates from facilities in rural Canada. After more than a decade of research and development, New Horizon has only produced a 50% scale model of its intended aircraft and has no full-scale prototype or type certification in progress. The company was formerly known as Astro Aerospace before being acquired and later brought public through Pono Capital Three, a SPAC sponsored by Davin Kazama and Dustin Shindo.
Key Points from the Report:- Outstanding shares exploded from 11 million in 2024 to 40.9 million by October 2025 (236% dilution) while management sold $3.5 million in personal shares before authorizing additional dilution
- Company lists only two facilities—a tiny hangar at a rural airport too small to fit a full-size eVTOL, and a residential house occupied by the CEO's wife
- Site visit revealed airport restaurant staff had never seen HOVR operating; airport manager called it "only an experimental thing" still in design phase
- After more than a decade of R&D, HOVR has only a 50% scale model with no full-scale aircraft, critical elements "yet to be designed, produced, and tested"
- Spent only $4.4M on R&D (TTM) while competitors JOBY spent $447M (100X more) and ACHR spent $357M (80X more) in FY24
- CEO compensation jumped 172% to C$700k, COO up 147% to C$489k, CFO up 205% to C$405k while diluting shareholders without building viable product
- Announced Discovery Air Chile LOI for 2028 delivery despite having no full-scale aircraft; CEO later admitted LOI wasn't about leasing but "future flight-data sharing"
- Lilium pursued similar 7-seat aircraft, built full-scale prototypes, and still went bankrupt; Airbus suspended its eVTOL program
- Current auditor MNP LLP is being sued for gross negligence tied to an alleged fraud/Ponzi scheme case unrelated to HOVR
- Photos from 2021, 2022, and 2025 show virtually identical prototypes; experts estimate $141-200M needed for certification while HOVR has only $20M cash
Activ8 Newswire
Recent articles and news from around the activist short selling world
Permission without Participation: Shorting in the Middle East
Middle Eastern markets have built short-selling frameworks to attract global capital, but activity remains microscopic, a gap between regulatory permission and market participation that becomes stark when MENA companies like Anghami and Yalla list on U.S. exchanges and face Western scrutiny.
Source: Activ8Insights
Michael Burry of 'Big Short' fame deregisters Scion Asset Management
The famed investor known for his prescient bet against the housing market has deregistered his investment firm with the SEC, meaning the firm will no longer be required to file quarterly 13F reports disclosing its holdings.
Source: Reuters | November 13, 2025
FTAI Aviation Beats Short Sellers And Sky-High Expectations, Up 50% In Six Months
The aviation leasing company has defied short seller skepticism with strong operational performance, demonstrating the challenges facing bearish bets in the current market environment.
Source: Investor's Business Daily
Michael Saylor Finally Addresses Short Sellers as MNAV Drops
The MicroStrategy chairman has responded to short seller criticism as the company's premium to net asset value has compressed amid broader market volatility.
Source: TheStreet
Short Seller Jim Chanos Strategy
An inside look at the legendary short seller's approach and strategy as he navigates an increasingly difficult market for bearish positions.
Source: TheStreet
Roblox Isn't a Game
An examination of the Roblox platform and business model, relevant to ongoing debates about the company's valuation and recent short seller interest in the stock.
Source: Psychology Today
Middle Eastern markets have built short-selling frameworks to attract global capital, but activity remains microscopic, a gap between regulatory permission and market participation that becomes stark when MENA companies like Anghami and Yalla list on U.S. exchanges and face Western scrutiny.
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