Weekly Wrap Up: Sunday 1/18/26
SHORTFINDER flags SOC's 60% float overhang, Pelican Way questions ONMD's Palantir deal, Bear Cave exposes ADUR's $11M losses on $200K revenue. Plus: HBO's Industry goes short.
As HBO's hit financial drama Industry returns for its fourth season, featuring a main character who now runs a short-selling fund, the real world of activist short selling continues to deliver storylines every bit as dramatic. This week brought us three new reports spanning offshore oil, medical imaging data, and cleantech, each illustrating the unpredictable nature of how markets digest bearish research. In what might be the most counterintuitive outcome of the week, Sable Offshore Corp. ($SOC) surged +18.33% despite SHORTFINDER's analysis flagging it as the "#1 dilution risk" in their entire coverage universe. Meanwhile, we published our deep dive into 2026 Global Risks Through a Short Seller's Eyes, examining how this year's unprecedented political volatility, from "state capitalism with American characteristics" to China's deflationary spiral, creates both opportunity and hazard for bearish investors navigating an increasingly unpredictable market landscape.
This Week's New Reports
- 3 new reports targeting offshore energy, healthcare data, and cleantech sectors
- SHORTFINDER flagged Sable Offshore Corp. ($SOC) as their #1 dilution risk with $221.8M in shelf registration representing 27% of market cap and 44.1M secondary shares (~60% of float) registered for resale; yet the stock rallied +18.33% for the week
- Pelican Way Research posted a Twitter thread alleging OneMedNet Corp. ($ONMD) is "more focused on narrative management than building a business," citing governance red flags and a misleading Palantir announcement. Stock fell -20.35% by week's end
- The Bear Cave highlighted Aduro Clean Technologies ($ADUR) with $11M in losses against just $200K in revenue and extensive paid social media promotion targeting retail investors. Stock recovered to close +1.78% for the week despite initial volatility
- Mixed market reactions this week: one significant decline (ONMD), two counterintuitive rallies (SOC, ADUR), demonstrating how short sellers' research timelines often extend beyond initial market responses
Using Eurasia Group's Top Risks 2026, we analyze how US state capitalism, China's deflation trap, and Europe's political collapse create both opportunities and execution risks for short sellers.
Read Full ReportNew Activist Reports
Sable Offshore Corp.
SOC NYSE•SHORTFINDERJanuary 12, 2026Stock Price Impact:
In one of the most counterintuitive market reactions of recent weeks, Sable Offshore defied SHORTFINDER's bearish thesis with an emphatic rally. While the stock initially dipped to an intraday low of $9.56 (-2.65%) on the report date, buyers quickly emerged, pushing shares to close at $10.67 (+8.66%). The momentum continued throughout the week, with SOC finishing at $11.62, an impressive +18.33% weekly gain despite being flagged as the "#1 dilution risk" in SHORTFINDER's entire coverage universe. The rally appears driven by short squeeze mechanics, with 37.4% short interest creating fuel for the +78.8% runup that preceded the report. SHORTFINDER's ML model still assigns a 73.5% probability of significant decline over the next 20 days.
About Sable Offshore Corp.:
Sable Offshore Corp. is a U.S.-based offshore oil and gas company listed on the NYSE. The company's primary assets include the Santa Ynez Unit and the Las Flores Pipeline System, critical infrastructure for offshore energy production. With a market capitalization of approximately $821.4 million at $8.26 per share (prior to the recent rally), Sable operates in the capital-intensive offshore energy sector. The company has utilized shelf registrations and secondary share offerings to finance operations, a practice that has drawn scrutiny from short sellers concerned about dilution risk for existing shareholders.
Key Points from the Report:
- Ranks #1 in SHORTFINDER's dilution-risk universe with a $221.8M active shelf registration representing 27% of market cap
- 44.1 million secondary shares (~60% of float) registered for resale by institutional holders
- SHORTFINDER's ML model assigns 73.5% probability of significant 20-day decline with expected downside of –30.7%
- High-risk institutional sellers including Citadel, Corbin Capital, Boothbay, and FourWorld executing 100% exits
- Prior dilution track record: May 2025 offering at $29.50 collapsed to $8.26 (–72% destruction)
- ATM-like selling mechanics allow continuous, price-insensitive supply with no advance announcement
- 37.4% short interest combined with +78.8% runup creates "squeeze exhaustion risk" according to the report
OneMedNet Corporation
ONMD NASDAQ•Pelican Way ResearchJanuary 12, 2026Stock Price Impact:
OneMedNet's stock exhibited a delayed reaction to Pelican Way Research's Twitter thread. On the report date, shares actually closed higher at $1.18 (+4.42%), suggesting initial market dismissal of the informal critique. However, the bearish thesis gained traction as the week progressed, with ONMD ultimately plunging to $0.90, a significant -20.35% weekly decline from pre-report levels. This pattern illustrates how Twitter-based short research, while lacking the formal structure of traditional reports, can still meaningfully impact stock prices as the allegations disseminate through investor channels. The sharp weekly decline suggests growing investor concern about the governance issues and Palantir announcement questions raised in the thread.
About OneMedNet Corporation:
OneMedNet Corporation is a NASDAQ-listed medical imaging data company headquartered in Eden Prairie, Minnesota. The company positions itself as an AI-driven healthcare data solutions provider, operating a medical imaging data platform. OneMedNet gained significant investor attention following its October 2025 announcement regarding a "strategic collaboration" with Palantir Technologies, a catalyst that Pelican Way Research now characterizes as potentially misleading. The company's CEO reportedly works remotely from Canada, while CFO Robert Golden joined permanently in January 2025 after an interim period beginning in August 2024.
Key Points from the Report:
- Pelican Way characterizes ONMD as "more focused on narrative management than on building a durable and transparent business"
- October 2025 Palantir announcement allegedly misleading: ONMD is merely a customer, not a strategic partner per the thread
- CEO works remotely from Canada with "limited transparency around executive presence and operational oversight"
- CFO Robert Golden allegedly maintains simultaneous employment with his prior CPA firm; dual role not fully disclosed
- Questions raised about legitimacy of corporate headquarters address
- Current auditor previously received $2M+ in PCAOB fines; former auditor involved in fraud affecting 1,500+ SEC filings
- Note: This was a Twitter thread, not a formal research report. Pelican Way states: "not a short report, we are short some shares but there will be no formal writeup"
Aduro Clean Technologies
ADUR NASDAQ•The Bear CaveJanuary 15, 2026Stock Price Impact:
Aduro Clean Technologies experienced significant intraday volatility following The Bear Cave's report, dropping as low as $13.27 (-9.05%) on the report date before recovering to close at $13.99 (-4.11%). By week's end, the stock had fully recovered and then some, finishing at $14.85, a modest +1.78% weekly gain despite the bearish research. This resilience is particularly notable given The Bear Cave's track record and the specific allegations about paid stock promotion. The recovery may reflect the retail investor base that The Bear Cave specifically highlighted as being targeted by ADUR's promotional campaigns, demonstrating how social media-driven investor communities can absorb bearish research differently than institutional-dominated names.
About Aduro Clean Technologies:
Aduro Clean Technologies is a NASDAQ-listed cleantech company that has been publicly traded since its 2021 listing. The company has risen approximately 200% since its NASDAQ uplisting, becoming what The Bear Cave describes as a "retail investor favorite." Despite this stock appreciation, Aduro's financials tell a different story: approximately $11 million in losses over the last twelve months against just ~$200,000 in reported revenue, a staggering 55:1 loss-to-revenue ratio. The company operates in the clean technology sector, positioning itself around emerging environmental and sustainability themes that have attracted significant retail investor interest.
Key Points from the Report:
- ~$11 million in losses on just ~$200,000 in revenue over the last twelve months, a 55:1 loss-to-revenue ratio
- Outside The Box Capital paid C$360,000 plus 40,000 stock options for digital marketing on Reddit, Discord, Telegram, Twitter, and StockTwits
- The Investing Authority engaged for up to US$187,500 for influencer campaigns, Discord servers, Reddit finance subreddits, and live streams
- Crystal Research Associates paid US$90,000 plus 300,000 options for Bloomberg, Reuters, FactSet distribution
- Four active marketing engagements disclosed in August 2025 filing, targeting retail investor platforms specifically
- Generation IACP engaged for at least $8,000/month for market making services starting May 2025
- The Bear Cave concludes "recent investor enthusiasm is premature" given the fundamentals vs. promotional spending
Activ8 Newswire
Recent articles and news from around the activist short selling world
HBO's 'Industry' Creators on Banking Culture, Risk, Fraud, and Short-Selling
As Season 4 of HBO's critically acclaimed financial drama premieres, creators and former investment bankers Mickey Down and Konrad Kay discuss how their show's protagonist Harper Stern now runs a fund specializing in short-selling. The season explores payment processing, political risk, and bearish investment strategies in a "corporate thriller" framework that continues to draw praise for its realistic portrayal of high finance.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
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