Weekly Wrap Up: Sunday 11/9/2025
METC, DASH, RR Updates + Argentina Votes: Easy to Fear, Hard to Short
This Week in Activist Short Selling
This week saw three new activist short reports with dramatically varied market reactions, ranging from a catastrophic 77.93% collapse to a surprising 7.26% gain. Meanwhile, our comprehensive October Activist Short Selling Report was released, analyzing 13 campaigns with a 76.9% success rate and spotlighting WolfPack Research as Short King of the Month.
- Davis Commodities (DTCK) suffered a catastrophic collapse following Fugazi Research's exposé, plunging 79.19% intraday and closing the week down 77.93% at just $1.41 as the market repriced what the firm calls a "capital-markets mirage" with family control, circular financing, and under 2% margins.
- HelloFresh (HFG.F) declined 9.61% by week's end after Grizzly Research highlighted structural challenges in the meal kit delivery model, including unsustainable customer acquisition costs and retention issues as post-pandemic normalization continues.
- AAON, Inc. (AAON) defied Jehoshaphat Research's accounting fraud allegations, initially dropping 3.63% before staging a dramatic reversal to finish the week up 7.26%, demonstrating strong buying support despite serious concerns about revenue recognition and executive departures.
- Our October Activist Short Selling Report was released this week, chronicling 13 campaigns that achieved a 76.9% success rate with -5.68% average impact. WolfPack Research claimed the Short King crown by publishing three reports averaging -12.9% impact, including the month's #1 performer Ramaco Resources at -24.1%.
New Activist Reports
Davis Commodities Ltd. DTCK
NASDAQ | Fugazi Research
November 7, 2025Fugazi Research's report triggered an immediate and catastrophic collapse in Davis Commodities, with the stock plunging 79.19% to $1.33 at its intraday low before settling at $1.41 for a 77.93% decline on the day of publication. The stock remained at these severely depressed levels through week's end, indicating the market found the allegations highly credible and material. This represents one of the most dramatic single-day collapses in response to activist short research in 2025, suggesting fundamental concerns about the company's viability and the possibility of a complete re-rating or delisting scenario.
About Davis Commodities Ltd.:Davis Commodities Ltd. is a Singapore-headquartered agricultural commodity trading company that listed on NASDAQ in 2023. The company operates across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, trading sugar, rice, and oils. Davis Commodities is family-controlled with a single family controlling 70-75% of voting power, and the business maintains extremely thin margins (under 2%) with negative cash flow and less than $1 million in bank reserves according to the report.
Key Points from the Report:- Fugazi alleges Davis Commodities is using family control, circular financing, and narrative engineering to maintain an illusion of growth while fundamentals collapse
- The company has pivoted from exporter to ESG tokenization to consumer goods, with each transition masking deteriorating margins, negative cash flow, and suspicious related-party transactions
- Under 2% margins, negative cash flow, and less than $1M in bank reserves suggest acute financial stress and potential going-concern issues
- Extensive related-party transactions with family-controlled entities raise governance red flags and questions about whether revenues and profits are real
- Fugazi concludes this isn't a company scaling a legitimate business—it's maintaining an illusion designed for capital-markets extraction
HelloFresh SE HFG.F
Frankfurt Stock Exchange | Grizzly Research
November 6, 2025Grizzly Research's report on HelloFresh generated a substantial market reaction, with the stock dropping 13.54% to €5.49 at its intraday low on the day of publication before recovering somewhat to close at €5.96, down 6.14%. By week's end, the stock settled at €5.74, representing a 9.61% decline from pre-report levels. The sustained weakness through week's end suggests the market is digesting structural concerns about the meal kit delivery model and HelloFresh's competitive positioning, though the partial recovery from intraday lows indicates some investors view the selloff as creating value.
About HelloFresh SE:HelloFresh SE is a Berlin-based meal kit delivery company that operates globally, providing pre-portioned ingredients and recipes to customers who cook at home. The company expanded rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic as consumers sought convenient home cooking solutions, but has faced increasing challenges as dining habits normalize and competition intensifies in the meal kit and food delivery space. HelloFresh trades on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange and has been working to improve unit economics and customer retention metrics.
Key Points from the Report:- Grizzly highlights unsustainable customer acquisition costs that exceed customer lifetime value in many markets, creating a structural profitability challenge
- High churn rates and declining repeat purchase behavior suggest the meal kit model faces fundamental engagement problems as the novelty wears off
- HelloFresh's pandemic-era growth was an anomaly, and the company is reverting to a structurally challenged business model as consumers return to restaurants
- Intensifying competition from both meal kit competitors and broader food delivery platforms is compressing margins and making customer acquisition more expensive
- Despite operational challenges, Grizzly argues HelloFresh remains overvalued relative to its sustainable earnings power and growth trajectory
AAON, Inc. AAON
NASDAQ | Jehoshaphat Research
November 3, 2025Jehoshaphat Research's fraud allegations against AAON generated initial selling pressure, with the stock falling 3.63% to $94.82 at its intraday low and closing down 2.53% at $95.90 on the day of publication. However, the stock staged a dramatic reversal through the remainder of the week, climbing to $105.53 for a 7.26% gain from pre-report levels. This positive weekly performance suggests the market either disagreed with the fraud allegations, viewed them as immaterial, or believes AAON's data center exposure and growth narrative outweigh accounting concerns. The reversal is notable given the serious nature of the allegations and may indicate strong institutional support or favorable sector dynamics overwhelming the thesis.
About AAON, Inc.:AAON, Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed manufacturer of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The company has positioned itself to capitalize on the data center buildout boom through its BASX subsidiary, which produces cooling solutions for high-density computing environments. AAON has been highlighted by investors as a pure-play beneficiary of AI infrastructure spending, with the data center segment representing a key growth driver. The company has seen significant stock appreciation based on the data center thesis, though traditional HVAC products remain part of the business.
Key Points from the Report:- Jehoshaphat alleges AAON is treating inventory purchases as revenues, maintaining contract asset DSOs of 192 days versus peers at less than 20 days, and recognizing $2.80 of revenue for every $1.00 actually billed
- The report claims BASX revenues are overstated by 30-40% (approximately $103 million), with a near-term revenue shortfall inevitable as accounting games unwind
- Liquid cooling products driving growth are actually low-margin contract manufacturing work at 15-20% gross margins, which will crush overall profitability
- Multiple C-suite executives have resigned and sold massive amounts of stock, including the former Chief Accounting Officer selling 85% of his shares days before resigning
- Jehoshaphat predicts greater than 30% downside to consensus earnings estimates and suggests a possible revenue restatement at year-end audit
Activ8 Newswire
Palantir CEO Alex Karp Calls Short Sellers 'Egregious' as Stock Hits New HighsBusiness Insider | November 2025Palantir Technologies CEO Alex Karp went on the offensive against short sellers, calling their efforts "egregious" as the AI-driven data analytics company's stock continues to surge to new all-time highs. The comments come amid heightened scrutiny of Palantir's government contracts and commercial growth trajectory, with short interest remaining elevated despite the stock's strong performance. Karp's forceful defense highlights the ongoing tension between activist short sellers and management teams in high-valuation tech stocks.
Read Article →SEBI Chief Announces Review of Short Selling and Mutual Fund Frameworks in IndiaIndia News Network | November 8, 2025The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) announced a comprehensive review of the country's short selling regulations and mutual fund framework, signaling potential policy changes that could impact activist short sellers operating in Indian markets. The review comes after several high-profile short campaigns targeting Indian companies raised questions about market manipulation, disclosure requirements, and investor protection. The regulatory examination could result in stricter disclosure rules for short positions and new guidelines for how activist research is disseminated in Indian markets.
Read Article →Carl Icahn's Net Worth Plummets Billions After Battle with Short SellersNew York Post | November 5, 2025Legendary activist investor Carl Icahn has seen his net worth decline by billions of dollars following an extended battle with short sellers who have targeted his company, Icahn Enterprises. The stock has faced sustained pressure from activist short research highlighting concerns about the company's structure, dividend sustainability, and asset valuations. The New York Post reports that Icahn's personal fortune has taken a significant hit as the market has sided with short sellers' concerns, marking a rare instance where one of Wall Street's most feared activists finds himself on the receiving end of activist pressure.
Read Article →HelloFresh Under Pressure: Grizzly Research Report Highlights Structural ChallengesGlobal Banking & Finance Magazine | November 2025Following this week's Grizzly Research report on HelloFresh, industry publication Global Banking & Finance Magazine analyzes the structural challenges facing the meal kit delivery sector. The article examines customer acquisition economics, retention metrics, and competitive dynamics that are pressuring HelloFresh's business model in the post-pandemic environment. The piece provides broader context for understanding why meal kit companies are facing increased skepticism from both short sellers and fundamental investors as growth rates normalize and profitability remains elusive.
Read Article →
October 2025 saw 13 activist short reports with a 76.9% hit rate and -5.68% average impact, crowned by Wolfpack (METC -24.1%, DVLT -20.1%) amid wide dispersion and notable misses like EOSE +20.9%.
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